Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Stern School of Business, New York University. This paper is adapted and updated from E. Altman, “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy,” Journal of Finance, September 1968; and E. Altman, R. Haldeman and P. Narayanan, “Zeta Analysis: A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 1, 1977.
AUTHOR:
Edward I. Altman
July 2000
INTRODUCTION:
The purpose of this summary are two-fold. First, those unique characteristics of business failures are examined in order to specify and quantify the variables which are effective indicators and predictors of corporate distress. By doing so, I hope to highlight the analytic as well as the practical value inherent in the use of financial ratios. Specifically, a set of financial and economic ratios will be analyzed in a corporate distress prediction context using a multiple discriminant statistical methodology. Through this exercise, I will explore not only the quantifiable characteristics of potential bankrupts but also the utility of a much-maligned technique of financial analysis: ratio analysis. Although the models that we will discuss were developed in the late 1960’s and mid-1970’s, I will extend our tests and findings to include application to firms not traded publicly, to non-manufacturing entities, and also refer to a new bond-rating equivalent model for emerging markets corporate bonds. The latter utilizes a version of the Z-Score model called Z”. This paper also updates the predictive tests on defaults and bankruptcies through the year 1999.
FULL TEXT: FREE DOWNLOAD ALTMAN
0 comments:
Post a Comment